Even when living in the same era, individuals experience discrepancies in the technologies and services available, the information and knowledge they can acquire, and the present and future they can infer from these.
When people with significant differences in such perceptions of time communicate, it's as if individuals from different eras have met via a time machine.
Previously, these temporal perception gaps arose from differences in technology, services, and accessible information and knowledge, often rooted in economic disparities caused by national borders and cultures.
Furthermore, generational differences led to disparities in time perception due to variations in the freshness of daily information encountered and levels of curiosity.
Moreover, by presenting new technologies and services alongside information and knowledge, these temporal perception gaps could be easily bridged.
Consequently, such differences in time perception were readily visible as disparities across nations, cultures, or generations, and could be quickly resolved, thus not posing a significant problem.
However, this situation is now changing dramatically due to the advent of generative AI.
I refer to a society where the emergence of generative AI causes disparities in time perception among people as a Chronoscramble Society. "Chrono" is the Greek word for time.
Discrepancies in Time Perception Regarding AI
The advent of generative AI, particularly large language models capable of human-like conversation, has widened the gap in time perception.
This disparity transcends visible boundaries such as nationality, culture, or generation. Nor is it simply a matter of technical expertise.
This is because even among AI researchers and developers, there are significant differences in their understanding of the current state and future prospects of these technologies.
And as time passes, this gap is not narrowing; it is, in fact, growing even wider.
This is the defining characteristic of what I call the Chronoscramble Society.
The Diversity of Time Differences
Furthermore, the scope of this time perception is not limited to just the trends in cutting-edge AI technology. It also includes trends in applied AI technologies and system technologies that combine existing technologies.
Applied technologies and system technologies are broad, and even I, who am deeply interested in the applied technologies of generative AI, sometimes overlook technologies in slightly different fields. Just the other day, I was shocked to learn about a service that had been released six months ago.
Regarding AI applied technology in that field, there was a six-month time perception gap between me and those who were aware of that service.
And this is not limited to technological knowledge. These technologies have already been commercially released, changing the real lives and economic activities of companies adopting them, their employees, and other businesses and general consumers using their services and products.
In other words, in terms of economy and society, a time perception gap is emerging between those who are aware and affected, and those who are not.
This extends to an even wider variety of fields than applied and system technologies.
These differences manifest as disparities in the acquisition of information and knowledge that serve as clues to the present state.
Moreover, there is a significant difference among individuals in their ability to estimate the actual present state from the acquired information and knowledge.
For example, even among people using chat AI, there will be a vast difference in their perception of generative AI's current capabilities between those using free AI models and those using the latest paid AI models.
Furthermore, a significant difference in perception arises between those who know what can be achieved with appropriate prompting and those who use it without creative prompts.
In addition to these, differences in perception will likely emerge depending on whether one has experienced various functions such as memory features, MCP, agent functions, or desktop and command-line AI tools.
Even a simple chat AI service can lead to such differences in perception based on how it is used.
Moreover, the ability to estimate the current impact of generative AI technology on the economy and society from experienced or observed information and knowledge will vary greatly among individuals.
In particular, many people, even if technically knowledgeable, may be unfamiliar with or have little interest in the economic and societal impacts. Conversely, many are sensitive to economic and societal impacts but struggle with technical understanding.
For these reasons, the multifaceted and comprehensive perception surrounding AI is diverse for each person, making the complexity of the Chronoscramble Society inevitable.
Hyperscramble Future Visions
Furthermore, future visions are even more complex.
Each person's future vision is based on their perception of the present. Future visions also encompass additional uncertainties, the broadening scope into diverse fields, and interactions between different domains.
Additionally, when predicting the future, many people tend to make linear projections. However, in reality, multiple layers of exponential changes can occur, such as the compound effect of accumulated technology, synergies from combining different technologies, and network effects from increasing users and fields.
There will be significant differences in future perception between those who believe the amount of change in the last two years will simply repeat in the next two, and those who anticipate exponential growth.
This is why perception gaps widen over time. In two years, the difference in future perception between these two groups will also expand exponentially. Even if one imagines exponentially, a difference in the perceived multiplicity of that exponential growth will still result in an exponential disparity.
Moreover, AI's impact brings both positive and negative effects to the economy and society. When people predict the future, their cognitive biases also create exponential differences in their predictions of these positive and negative impacts.
Individuals with a strong positive bias will predict positive impacts exponentially while predicting negative impacts linearly. For those with a strong negative bias, the opposite will be true.
Furthermore, no matter how much effort is made to remove bias, it is impossible to avoid overlooking initial areas or perspectives of impact, or to incorporate all possibilities for technological application, innovation, and synergy into predictions.
In this way, the temporal perception gaps in future visions become even more scrambled. This could even be called a hyperscramble.
Time Communication Difficulty
Thus, the discrepancies in time perception created by generative AI cannot be bridged with simple demonstrations or explanations.
Moreover, no matter how thorough the explanation, these gaps cannot be filled due to differences in the other party's background understanding of technology, economy, and society. To bridge them, it's necessary to educate not only about AI and its applied technologies but also about foundational technologies and the structure and formation of the economy and society.
Furthermore, it requires correcting the cognitive habits of linear versus exponential models for future projections. We must start by ensuring an understanding of compound interest, network effects, and, in some cases, applied mathematics like game theory.
This must be established across all technological application fields and economic/social domains.
Ultimately, one encounters the unassailable wall of positive or negative bias, which cannot be overcome by explanations or knowledge alone.
When there's a discrepancy in perception at that point, given the inherent uncertainty, determining who is correct or who holds the bias becomes an irresolvable stalemate.
It's like someone who has witnessed the negative aspects of a certain field two years in the future debating the society of ten years hence with someone who has seen the positive aspects of a different field five years in the future.
That is what a Chronoscramble Society is.
And this is not a temporary transitional problem. The Chronoscramble Society is a new reality that will continue indefinitely. We have no choice but to live by accepting the Chronoscramble Society as our premise.
Presence or Absence of Agency
Beyond merely estimating the present and forecasting the future, the Chronoscramble Society becomes even more complex due to the presence or absence of agency.
Those who believe they cannot change the future, or that while they might change their immediate surroundings, they cannot change society, culture, academia, or ideology, will likely believe that the predicted future will simply become reality.
Conversely, for those who believe they can proactively change various things by cooperating with many people, the future vision will appear to have several options.
Independence from Time Perception
If there were merely differences in the perception of the present and future, there would be no particular problem.
However, when making decisions related to the future, these discrepancies in time perception, difficulties in communication, and the presence or absence of agency become significant issues.
It becomes extremely difficult for people with different perceptions of the present, different visions of the future, and different options to engage in meaningful discussions for decision-making.
This is because aligning the premises of the discussion is exceedingly challenging.
Nevertheless, we cannot give up on discussion.
Therefore, going forward, we cannot assume temporal synchronicity.
While efforts to reduce the differences in each other's time perceptions have some merit, we must resign ourselves to the impossibility of complete synchronization. Aiming for perfectly synchronized time perception is difficult to achieve, wastes time, and only increases mental friction.
Therefore, we must devise methods for meaningful discussion while acknowledging the existence of differences in time perception.
This means aiming for independence from time perception in decision-making and discussions.
We need to present each other's time perceptions and, while recognizing those differences, proceed with discussions and decision-making.
In such cases, the discussion should be structured so that it holds true regardless of whose estimation or prediction of actual or future time is correct.
And we should strive for common understanding only in those areas where differences in time perception create unavoidable discrepancies in the quality of discussion or the determination of options.
By aiming for discussions as independent from time perception as possible, and focusing efforts on bridging differences only in unavoidable areas, we must make useful decisions within realistic limits of effort and time, while maintaining the quality of discussion.
Conclusion
Initially, I intended to name this phenomenon "Time Scramble." I changed "Time" to "Chrono" because, while writing this, I remembered "Chrono Trigger," a game I loved as a child.
Chrono Trigger is an RPG, telling the story of a protagonist and heroine living in an era with countries influenced by medieval European culture. They obtain a time machine and travel between the era of legendary heroes, the prehistoric age, and a future society where robots are active, gathering companions along the way. Ultimately, they cooperate to defeat a final boss who is a common enemy to people of all eras. Even the Demon King, who was the legendary hero's foe, ends up fighting alongside them against this final boss.
Here lies an overlap with my discussion. While no time machine exists, we are in a situation where we are living in different eras. And even if the differences in our perceived eras cannot be bridged, and we are living in separate times, we must confront common societal problems.
In doing so, we must not ignore each other or remain hostile, but rather cooperate. Chrono Trigger serves as an analogy suggesting that if there is a common enemy regardless of time, we must cooperate, and that it is possible to do so.
However, when I first noticed this coincidental alignment, I did not intend to change the name of this social phenomenon.
Later, when I pondered why Chrono Trigger aligns so well with present-day society, I realized that the situation the creators found themselves in might have been a microcosm similar to the current state of society.
Chrono Trigger was a collaborative work by game creators from Enix, the developer of Dragon Quest, and Square, the developer of Final Fantasy—the two most popular RPG series in the Japanese game industry at the time. For us as children, it was a dream come true.
Looking back now as an adult, it is usually almost impossible for a work created as such a "dream project" to become a true masterpiece that captivates many people. This is because, by definition, a dream project is almost guaranteed to sell a sufficient number of copies, making it economically rational to cut costs and effort to produce a "decent" game, just enough to avoid complaints and bad reputation later.
Nevertheless, in terms of story, music, novelty of game elements, and characters, there is no doubt that it represents Japanese RPGs. While it is usually difficult to assert this strongly for games, where preferences vary from person to person, for this game, I can say so without hesitation.
Consequently, Square and Enix later merged to become Square Enix, which continues to produce various games, including Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy.
This is purely my speculation, but considering this merger, the collaboration on Chrono Trigger might not have been just a flashy project, but a touchstone with a future merger of the two companies in mind. It's possible that both companies were facing management issues or looking ahead to future growth, compelling them to seriously commit to this game.
However, it is likely that there were significant disparities in the production staff's perception of the current situation and their predictions for their own companies' futures. Those closer to management would have had a more realistic perception, while those further removed would have found it difficult to perceive that their company, which produced popular works, was in jeopardy.
Furthermore, with a collaboration between staff from different companies, the actual circumstances of both companies would naturally differ. Nevertheless, considering the shared economic and industry environment surrounding both, it is plausible there was an imperative to cooperate and make this project a success.
It seems to me that as they shaped the story around the idea of a time machine, the reality of rival companies and staff with differing perceptions of time being compelled to cooperate was reflected in the narrative.
In other words, it seems that Chrono Trigger, beyond its in-game story, also had a "scrambled" game development project with significant differences in time perception. The struggles to make this real development project a success, the actual unity and cooperation among staff and managers, and the story of fighting a true enemy beyond eras and adversarial relationships intertwined, leading to the creation of a work that we consider a true masterpiece, transcending a mere gathering of famous game creators or managerial seriousness.
Although based on such speculation, I decided to call this "Chronoscramble Society" with the meaning of wanting to reproduce the success of this game development project in current society.