Even when people live in the same era, there can be differences in the technologies and services available to them, the information and knowledge they can acquire, and the present and future they can infer from these.
When people with significant differences in these aspects communicate, it's as if individuals from different eras have met using a time machine.
Until now, such differences in temporal perception arose from disparities in technology, services, information, and knowledge, often rooted in economic disparities across national borders and cultures.
Furthermore, generational gaps also contributed to differences in temporal perception, due to variations in the recency of daily information exposure and curiosity levels.
Moreover, these differences in temporal perception could be easily bridged by presenting new technologies and services alongside relevant information and knowledge.
Consequently, these temporal perception gaps were readily apparent as differences across borders, cultures, or generations, and could be quickly resolved, thus not posing a major problem.
However, this situation is now undergoing a significant change, brought about by the emergence of generative AI.
I refer to a society where the advent of generative AI causes people to experience different temporal perceptions as a "Chronoscramble Society." "Chrono" is a Greek word meaning "time."
Differences in Temporal Perception Regarding AI
With the advent of generative AI, particularly large language models capable of human-like conversation, the gap in temporal perception has widened.
This gap does not have visible boundaries like national borders, cultures, or generations. Nor is it simply a matter of technological proficiency.
This is because even among AI researchers and developers, there are significant differences in their understanding of the overall current state and future prospects of these technologies.
Moreover, as time passes, this gap is not narrowing; it is widening further.
This is the characteristic of current society that I refer to as the Chronoscramble Society.
Diversity of Time Gaps
Furthermore, this temporal perception is not limited to the trends of cutting-edge AI technology. It also includes trends in applied AI technologies and system technologies that combine existing technologies.
Applied and system technologies are broad, and even I, who am deeply interested in applied generative AI technologies, sometimes overlook technologies in slightly different fields. Just recently, I was shocked to learn about a service that had been released six months ago.
In that particular field of AI application, there was a six-month difference in temporal perception between those who knew about that service and me before I learned about it.
And this is not limited to technological knowledge. These technologies have already been commercially released and are changing the real lives and economic activities of companies that adopt them, their employees, and other companies and general consumers who use their services and products.
In other words, in terms of economy and society, a temporal perception gap is emerging between those who are aware and affected and those who are not.
This extends to an even wider variety of fields than applied and system technologies.
These create differences in the acquisition of information and knowledge that serve as clues to the present state.
Furthermore, there is also a significant difference among individuals in their ability to estimate the actual present state from the acquired information and knowledge.
For example, even among people who use chat AI, those who use free AI models and those who use paid, state-of-the-art AI models will likely have vastly different perceptions of the current capabilities of generative AI.
Significant differences in perception also arise between those who know what can be achieved by providing appropriate prompts and those who use it without prompt engineering.
In addition to these, differences in perception will surely emerge based on whether one has experienced various features such as memory functions, MCP (Memory, Computation, Perception), agent functions, and desktop or command-line AI tools.
Even a simple chat AI service can lead to differences in perception depending on how it is used.
Moreover, the ability to estimate the current impact of generative AI on technology, the economy, and society from information and knowledge gained through experience or observation will vary greatly among individuals.
In particular, many people, even if technologically knowledgeable, are often ignorant of or uninterested in its economic and and societal impacts. Conversely, many people are sensitive to economic and societal impacts but struggle with technical understanding.
As a result, a multifaceted and comprehensive understanding of AI is highly diverse among individuals, making the complexity of a Chronoscramble Society unavoidable.
Hyperscrambled Future Outlook
Furthermore, the future outlook is even more complex.
Each individual's future outlook is based on their perception of the present. The future outlook also includes additional uncertainties, a broader scope across diverse fields, and interactions between different domains.
Moreover, many people tend to make linear predictions when forecasting the future. However, in reality, multiple layers of exponential changes can occur, such as compounding effects from technological accumulation, synergies from combining different technologies, and network effects from increasing users and domains.
There will be a significant difference in the perception of the future between those who believe the amount of change in the past two years will directly occur in the next two years, and those who assume an exponential trajectory.
This is why the perception gap widens over time. In two years, the difference in their future perceptions will also expand exponentially. And even if one imagines an exponential growth, if there's a difference in the perceived multiplicity of that growth, an exponential difference will still emerge.
Additionally, AI's impact brings both positive and negative effects on the economy and society. And when people predict the future, their cognitive biases will create exponential differences in their predictions of positive and negative impacts.
Individuals with strong positive bias will predict positive impacts exponentially while predicting negative impacts linearly. The opposite will be true for those with a strong negative bias.
Moreover, no matter how much one tries to eliminate bias, it's impossible to predict without overlooking certain areas or perspectives of influence, or failing to incorporate the possibilities of technical applications, innovations, and synergies into the forecast.
In this way, the temporal perception gap in the future outlook is scrambled even further. This could even be called "hyperscrambled."
Difficulty in Time Communication
As such, the temporal perception gap created by generative AI cannot be bridged by simple demonstrations or explanations.
Furthermore, no matter how thorough the explanation, it cannot be bridged due to differences in the recipient's background understanding of technology, economy, and society. To bridge it, one must educate not only about AI and applied technologies but also about fundamental technology, economics, and the structure of society.
In addition, the habit of linear versus exponential thinking for future outlooks must be corrected. One must start by helping them understand compound effects, network effects, and in some cases, applied mathematics like game theory.
This needs to be established across all technological application fields and economic/social domains.
Moreover, one ultimately encounters walls that cannot be overcome by explanation or knowledge, such as positive and negative biases.
When there's a discrepancy in perception due to uncertainty, it becomes a parallel line of debate as to who is correct and who holds the bias, with no means of resolution.
This is like a person who has seen a negative scenario two years in the future in one field debating the future society in ten years with someone who has seen a positive scenario five years in the future in a different field.
A Chronoscramble Society is precisely such a society.
And this is not a temporary transitional problem. The Chronoscramble Society is a new reality that will continue indefinitely from now on. We have no choice but to live assuming and accepting the Chronoscramble Society.
Presence or Absence of Agency
Beyond estimating the present and predicting the future, the presence or absence of agency further complicates Chronoscramble Society.
Those who believe they cannot change the future, or that while they can change things around them, they cannot change society, culture, academia, or ideology, will likely believe that their predicted future will become reality as is.
On the other hand, for those who believe that by cooperating with many people, they can proactively change various things, the future will appear to have several options.
Independence from Temporal Perception
If there were merely differences in the perception of the present and future, there would be no particular problem.
However, when making decisions that concern the future, this temporal perception gap, communication difficulty, and the presence or absence of agency become major issues.
It becomes extremely difficult for people with different temporal perceptions of the present, different perceptions of the future, and different options to have a meaningful discussion for decision-making.
This is because aligning the premises of the discussion is extremely difficult.
Nevertheless, we cannot give up on discussion.
Therefore, from now on, we cannot assume temporal synchronicity.
While efforts to narrow each other's temporal perception gaps have some meaning, we must abandon the aim of complete synchronization. Attempting complete temporal synchronization is difficult to achieve, wastes time, and merely increases mental friction.
Therefore, while acknowledging the existence of temporal perception gaps, we must devise methods for meaningful discussion.
This means aiming for independence from temporal perception in decision-making and discussions.
We need to present each other's temporal perceptions, recognize the differences, and then proceed with discussions and decision-making.
In such a case, the discussion should be structured so that it remains valid regardless of whose estimation or prediction of actual time or future time turns out to be correct.
And only in areas where the temporal perception gap creates unavoidable differences in the quality of discussion or the determination of options should we strive for a common understanding.
By aiming for discussions as independent as possible from temporal perception, and focusing on the unavoidable parts where differences must be addressed, we must maintain the quality of discussion and make useful decisions within realistic limits of effort and time.
Conclusion
Initially, I intended to name this phenomenon "Time Scramble." I changed "Time" to "Chrono" because, while writing this article, I recalled a game I loved as a child called "Chrono Trigger."
Chrono Trigger is an RPG about a protagonist and heroine living in an era with medieval European-style cultures. They acquire a time machine and travel back and forth between eras such as the age of legendary heroes, the prehistoric era, and a future society where robots are active, gathering companions along the way. The story culminates in them cooperating to defeat a final boss who becomes a common enemy for people of all eras. Even the Demon King, who was an enemy of the legendary heroes, ends up fighting alongside them against this final boss.
Herein lies the overlap with my argument. While no time machine exists, we are placed in a situation as if living in different eras. And even if the perceived differences in eras cannot be bridged, and we live in separate times, we must confront common societal problems.
In doing so, we must cooperate, rather than ignoring or opposing each other. Chrono Trigger serves as an analogy suggesting that if there is a common enemy regardless of time, we must cooperate, and that it is possible.
However, merely realizing this accidental coincidence did not initially make me want to change the name of this social phenomenon.
Later, when I pondered why Chrono Trigger aligns so well with current society, it occurred to me that the circumstances of its creators might have been a miniature, similar reflection of today's social situation.
Chrono Trigger was a collaborative work between game creators from Enix (the developer of Dragon Quest), and Square (the developer of Final Fantasy), two major RPG series that were immensely popular in the Japanese game industry at the time. For us as children, it was a dream come true.
Now, looking back as an adult, it is usually almost impossible for a work created through such a "dream project" to become a true masterpiece that captivates many people. This is because, by the time it's a "dream project," sufficient sales are almost guaranteed, making it economically rational to cut costs and effort to create a decent product that won't incur complaints or damage future reputation.
Nevertheless, in terms of story, music, novelty of game elements, and characters, it is undeniably a representative Japanese RPG. It's usually difficult to make such a definitive statement about games, where preferences vary by person, but for this game, I can say so without hesitation.
And as a result, Square and Enix later merged to become Square Enix, continuing to produce various games including Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy.
While this is purely my speculation, considering this merger, the collaboration on Chrono Trigger might not have been merely a flashy project, but a test case with a future merger of the two companies in mind. It's possible that both companies were in an environment where they had to seriously commit to this game, either due to managerial issues or with an eye on future growth.
That being said, it is conceivable that there was a significant gap in the current perceptions of the development staff and their predictions for the future of their respective companies. Those closer to management would have had a more realistic understanding, while those further removed might have found it difficult to grasp that their company, producing popular titles, was in jeopardy.
Furthermore, with a collaboration between staff from different companies, the actual situations of both companies would inherently differ. However, considering the common economic and industry environment surrounding both, there might have been a background necessitating their cooperation to make this project a success.
It seems to me that the reality of needing rival companies, with their differing temporal perceptions, to cooperate was reflected in the process of shaping the story around the idea of a time machine.
In other words, it seems that Chrono Trigger, not only in its in-game story but also its game development project, was in a "scrambled" state with significant temporal perception differences. I have come to believe that the struggles to make this realistic development project a success, and the actual unity and cooperation among staff and managers, intertwined with the story of fighting a true enemy beyond eras and animosity, led to the creation of a work that we consider a true masterpiece, transcending a mere gathering of famous game creators or corporate commitment.
Although based on such speculation, I have decided to name this "Chronoscramble Society" with the meaning of wanting to recreate the success of this game development project in current society.