We often struggle to comprehend phenomena where outcomes accumulate and interact.
There's a common math problem: a grandchild asks their grandparent for an allowance, starting with one yen and doubling it every day for a month.
If the unsuspecting grandparent agrees, they'd end up owing a billion yen a month later.
This error arises because we tend to assume that if doubling one yen a few times doesn't amount to much, then the progression will continue along that same linear path.
However, by carefully tracing the results of this accumulation and interaction, one can understand that the outcome will be an enormous sum, even without advanced mathematical knowledge or intuition.
Therefore, this isn't a problem of knowledge or ability, but rather a problem of thinking methodology.
And this method of thinking, where one progressively tracks accumulation and interaction to logically understand the outcome, is what I would like to call "simulation thinking."
The First Step in the Origin of Life
Similarly, we struggle to comprehend the origin of life.
The origin of life is the question of how complex cells emerged on the ancient Earth, which initially contained only simple chemical substances.
When considering this problem, explanations are sometimes offered that rely on a momentary, accidental miracle.
However, from the perspective of accumulation and interaction, it can be understood as a more realistic phenomenon.
Water and air circulate repeatedly in various parts of the Earth. Chemical substances are thus moved locally and then diffusely travel throughout the entire planet.
Through these various repetitions, chemical substances react with each other.
This should lead to a transition from an initial state, which contained only simple chemical substances, to a state that includes slightly more complex chemical substances. Of course, many simple chemical substances would still be present.
And since slightly more complex chemical substances are combinations of simple chemical substances, their numbers are smaller, but their variety is greater than that of simple chemical substances.
This state transition does not only occur in small, localized areas of the Earth; it happens simultaneously and in parallel across the entire planet.
Moreover, due to the circulation of Earth's water and atmosphere, what happens in one small area diffuses into its surroundings, causing chemical substances to mix across the entire Earth. This results in an Earth where a diverse range of chemical substances, slightly more complex than the initial state, now exist.
The Significance of the First Step
There is no evidence for this transition from the initial state to this current state; it is a inference. However, no one could deny it. Rather, to deny it, one would need to explain why this universal mechanism, observable even today, would not function.
This mechanism already possesses self-maintenance, replication, and metabolism for slightly more complex chemical substances. However, this is not the advanced self-maintenance, replication, and metabolism extremely close to that of living organisms.
All slightly more complex chemical substances can both break down and be formed. Yet, on a planetary scale, each slightly more complex chemical substance maintains a certain constant amount.
The very fact that a constant amount is maintained through repeated formation and breakdown demonstrates the nature of self-maintenance through metabolism.
Furthermore, slightly more complex chemical substances do not exist as just single molecules; though their proportion may be small, their number is vast.
While this isn't self-replication, it is a productive activity that generates more of the same chemical substance. Although the term "replication" might be slightly different, it yields a similar effect.
In other words, the undeniable phenomenon of the Earth transitioning from containing only simple chemical substances to including slightly more complex chemical substances is both the first step and the essence of the origin of life.
Towards the Next Step
Of course, this state, which includes slightly more complex chemical substances, is not life itself.
Nor is it reasonable to view this as the activity of life on a planetary scale. It is merely a state where slightly more complex chemical substances are present due to repeated chemical reactions.
And this can certainly happen on planets other than Earth. The fact that life did not emerge on other planets but did on Earth suggests that something different happened on Earth compared to other planets.
Considering what that something is, is the next stage.
However, after understanding this initial step, we should not be able to think of the next step in the origin of life in a localized manner. Like the first step, the next step must also be conceived as a planetary-scale phenomenon.
And the next step is for Earth to transition to a state containing chemical substances that are even slightly more complex.
As this step is repeated, chemical substances gradually and cumulatively become more complex.
Concurrently, the mechanisms of self-maintenance, replication, and metabolism also become incrementally more complex.
The Role of Polymers and Earth's Topography
Here, the presence of polymers plays a significant role. Proteins and nucleic acids are polymers. Polymers can cumulatively create complex and diverse polymers from just a few types of monomers. The existence of monomers capable of forming polymers enhances the evolutionary nature of this mechanism.
The numerous lakes and ponds on Earth function as isolated scientific experiment sites. There must have been millions of such locations across the planet. Each would have been a different environment while still being able to exchange chemical substances through the global circulation of water and air.
The Power of Simulation Thinking
Once the origin of life is envisioned in this manner, it becomes impossible to offer anything more than the critique of "lack of evidence." Instead, one would have to search for a mechanism that refutes this one. However, I cannot conceive of such a mechanism.
In other words, much like the grandfather in the allowance example, we simply haven't understood the origin of life. Just as we can understand the enormous allowance after 30 days by applying simulation thinking to known facts, considering accumulation and interaction, we can also understand the emergence of life on Earth.
The Dust Cloud Hypothesis
A strong UV light on the surface would hinder the exchange of chemical substances. However, ancient Earth must have been covered by clouds of volcanic ash and dust from frequent volcanic activity and meteorite impacts. These clouds would have blocked ultraviolet radiation.
Additionally, the atmosphere contained hydrogen, oxygen, carbon, and nitrogen—atoms that are key components for important biological monomers—while dust included other rare atoms. Furthermore, the surface of the dust could act as a catalyst for the chemical synthesis of monomers.
Moreover, the friction of dust generates energy such as heat and lightning, and the sun continuously supplies energy like UV radiation and heat.
This dust cloud is the ultimate monomer factory, running 24/7, utilizing the entire Earth and all the solar energy pouring into it.
Interaction of Mechanisms
Recall the first step: the transition to an Earth containing slightly more complex chemical substances.
On a planet where this mechanism is functioning, there is an ultimate monomer factory, the principle of complexity accumulation into polymers is realized, and there are millions of interconnected scientific laboratories.
Even if this doesn't fully explain the origin of life, there's no doubt that it provides a mechanism for the creation of the complex chemical substances required by living organisms.
And remember the argument that the first step already contains the essence of life.
An Earth containing highly complex chemical substances, created as an extension of this step, must embody the essence of life at a more advanced level.
From this, we can see that an Earth with a diverse array of highly complex chemical substances and highly advanced essential phenomena of life has now come into being.
The Final Touch
We have now arrived at a point where we can consider the origin of life assuming an Earth that has reached a highly advantageous state, a premise not typically considered in existing discussions.
What else is needed for the emergence of life?
It is the creation and integration of the functional mechanisms required by living organisms.
This seems to require no particularly special contrivances and can be explained as a natural extension of the discussion so far.
The Method of Simulation Thinking
Simulation thinking is different from simulation itself.
For example, trying to simulate the mechanism of the origin of life explained here with a computer would not be easy.
This is because my explanation lacks the strict, formal expressions necessary for a simulation.
However, this does not mean my thinking is not rigorous.
While the mode of expression is natural language, it is based on a solid logical structure, known scientific facts, and objective reasoning rooted in our experience.
Therefore, it is perfectly capable of grasping overall trends and changes in properties. If it is mistaken, it is not due to a lack of formalization, but rather an oversight of underlying conditions or the influence of specific interactions.
Thus, simulation thinking is possible using natural language, even without defining formal expressions.
I believe that even without formal expressions, it is possible to rigorously express mathematical concepts using natural language.
I call this "natural mathematics."
With natural mathematics, the effort and time for formalization are unnecessary, allowing a broader range of people to mathematically grasp and understand a wider scope than with existing mathematics.
And simulation thinking is precisely a method of thinking that employs simulation using natural language.
Software Development
Simulation thinking is an indispensable skill for software developers.
A program repeatedly performs calculations using data in memory space and places the results into the same or different data in memory space.
In other words, a program is accumulation and interaction itself.
Furthermore, what a software developer aims to achieve is usually understood through documents and interviews with the person commissioning the development.
Since the ultimate goal is to realize something with a program, the content, when thoroughly examined, must be the cumulative interaction of data.
However, the person commissioning the software development is not a programming expert. Therefore, they cannot rigorously describe what they want to achieve in formal expressions.
Consequently, what is obtained from documents and interviews are texts in natural language, along with reference diagrams and tables. The task of converting this into rigorous formal expressions is software development.
In the process of software development, there are tasks such as requirements analysis and requirement organization, and specification definition, where development content is organized based on customer documents.
Additionally, based on the results of the specification definition, basic design is performed.
The results of these tasks are primarily expressed using natural language. As the work progresses, the content becomes logically rigorous to facilitate the creation of the final program.
And at the basic design stage, which centers on natural language, the product must be able to operate on a computer and fulfill what the customer wants to achieve.
This is precisely where simulation thinking through natural mathematics is required. Moreover, a double layer of simulation thinking is necessary here.
One is simulation thinking to confirm whether the expected behavior can be achieved as an interaction between computer memory space and the program.
The other is simulation thinking to confirm whether what the customer wants to achieve is actually realized.
The former requires the ability to grasp the internal workings of a computer through simulation thinking. The latter requires the ability to grasp the tasks the customer will perform using the software through simulation thinking.
Thus, software developers possess these dual simulation thinking abilities—principled simulation thinking and semantic simulation thinking—as an empirical skill.
Conclusion
The origin of life is a subject many scientists and intellectually curious individuals are working on. However, understanding the origin of life in the way explained here is not common.
This suggests that simulation thinking is a way of thinking that is easily lacking for many people, regardless of their knowledge or ability.
On the other hand, software developers heavily utilize simulation thinking to translate various concepts into systems.
Of course, simulation thinking is not exclusive to software developers, but software development particularly requires and is excellent for training this ability.
By using simulation thinking, one can not only assemble and understand the complete picture of complex and advanced scientific mysteries like the origin of life but also complex subjects like organizational and societal structures.
Therefore, I believe that in the future society, individuals with simulation thinking skills, like software developers, will play active roles in various fields.